Episode #28 Otavio Costa – Global Macro Hedge Fund Research, Economic Indicators and Business Cycle

Otavio Costa has been an analyst on Crescat’s investment team for more than five years with a focus on global cross-asset research. “Tavi” built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish.


The presentation mentioned in the conversation can be found here. Keep in mind this is not investment advice. Please read the disclosures at the end of the presentation.

The topics discussed include:

What it is like to be a global macro analyst

What Otavio pays attention to when building macro models

What economic indicators Otavio uses

The current state of the business cycle

Otavio’s view on the US equities market

China, Brazil and precious metals

What steps Otavio took early in his career to learn his trade

recommendations on how to stay sharp and informed

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Luke, Leo & Andy